Not enough new antibiotics
Plus, excess deaths and paying attention to Yemen
Hi Health Deskers,
This week our scientists are looking at a new report that suggests COVID-19 deaths may be three times higher than current estimates. Death tolls published by the World Health Organization estimate 6 million people have died from the virus, but a recent publication in The Lancet suggests that number may be even higher—maybe as high as 18.2 million excess deaths.
Some of the countries listed in the Lancet’s article, including India and the U.S., may have dramatically undercounted their excess deaths. One important note to consider: the study measures deaths using overall excess deaths in order to overcome variations in how different countries count deaths from COVID-19. You can read our explainer here on how excess deaths are used to measure the pandemic’s real toll.
This week we’re watching good developments in the world of antibiotics, plus concerns about Yemeni children and the toll of war on their health. Our scientists are also diving into the science behind virus mutations and new updates on how long COVID-19 vaccine protection might last. Don’t forget to pass this newsletter around to your friends and family, and email us at health@meedan.com with your health and science queries.
A look ahead…
Good news on antibiotics
New results from the pharmaceutical company Venatorx show promise for people with complicated urinary tract infections (cUTIs). In a randomized, double-blinded trial involving 661 patients, participants took a drug cocktail, and 70% of them saw success in clearing their infections. The down side is that over 35% of the patients also reported adverse effects. In 2020 the World Health Organization issued a status report about the development of new antibiotics like the one in this study. We’re currently lacking new antibiotic drugs—despite increasing rates of superbugs, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. We expect that pharmaceutical companies will feel the pressure to develop newer antibiotic formulas, but without more research and development funding, it may be quite a challenge.
Ukraine invasion may hide true toll on Yemen’s children
News coverage of Russia's invasion of Ukraine is dominating international headlines, leading many global health professionals to worry about dwindling focus on another vulnerable population: Yemenis. Since violence in the nation increased seven years ago, UNICEF says 10,200 children have been killed or injured. The actual number is likely much higher. The Red Cross asks that we don’t lose sight of people who are living through the years long war in the Middle East's poorest nation. With already limited attention focused on the region, and minimal media presence, there are concerns that both news outlets and citizens may be experiencing compassion fatigue from constantly worrying about COVID-19, the global economy, Ukraine, police brutality and other pressing issues. We hope renewed focus is given to Yemen and other countries facing international violence.
And now, our latest updates on pandemic science…
What are COVID-19 mutations and variants and how do they work?
A virus' job is to infect more cells by making copies of itself, so it can continue to spread. It works like an architect who wants to build as many houses as she can using the same blueprints. Sometimes accidents and random errors occur when the virus is copying itself, so it ends up looking a little bit different from the original blueprint. These errors are called 'mutations' and they're to be expected. Most of them have little to no impact on how the virus spreads or how severe the illness will be. Some of these mutations can causes viruses to become stronger, weaker, stay mostly the same, or even disappear entirely…Every so often, some of these single mutations or variants become really successful and help the virus transmit easily from one person to another, or cause more severe symptoms.
“Scientists monitor variants around the world. They are always looking out for ones that might be more infectious, might not respond to vaccines, or might cause worse symptoms in people. When variants begin to look like they can impact people in these ways, health and medical groups like the World Health Organization may begin to classify them as variants of interest, variants of concern, or variants of high consequence. These categorizations help public health agencies target efforts to address the specific changes in these variants.”
How long does protection last after a COVID-19 vaccine?
A new analysis in The Lancet published in March 2022 found that four WHO-approved COVID-19 vaccines – Pfizer, Moderna, J&J, and AstraZeneca – retain nearly all of their ability to prevent severe disease up to six months after full vaccination.
The overall level of protection against (detected) infection from COVID-19 fell from 90% to 69% after six months. Protection against severe disease only fell 10 percentage points.
“When measuring protection against symptomatic illness, the drop was bigger at 24.9 percentage points on average, which includes both mild and severe symptomatic illness across all ages. When narrowed down to just older individuals, the percentage point decrease from one month to six months was 32.
Researchers found that right after a booster shot of the Pfizer vaccine (two weeks post-vaccine), the booster cuts the risk of infection with symptoms by about 50%.”
That’s all for now everyone, stay up to date on our recent explainers at health-desk.org.