All eyes are on India as the country grapples with a severe and tragic COVID-19 outbreak that’s overflowing health systems. Our experts forecast that, following countries including Singapore, Thailand and the U.K., more may begin donating some of their supplies as India tries to get COVID-19 under control. We’re also watching the growing intellectual property debate over COVID-19 vaccine technologies and what appears to be emerging as a global tale of two pandemics.
Each week in this newsletter Health Desk will bring you the latest, most newsworthy health information from our consortium of in-house scientists. Feel free to use our content in your reporting and fact-checking. You can browse our database of more than 200 explainers or ask us a question directly.
This week our scientists wrote explainers on menstruation, lockdowns and vaccine ingredients. Check out our homepage for all the updates and keep scrolling to see highlights and a free trial of exclusive forecasting by our team of experts.
Stay in touch by emailing us at health@meedan.com. We're always happy to support your reporting and debunking!
Health Desk is a project by Meedan's Digital Health Lab where scientists write about timely public health topics for newsrooms and fact-checkers.
Here's some of what our scientists covered this week
How is immunity impacted by lockdowns?
Studies have shown that when infants and children are raised in a home that is “too clean,” they may be more likely to have allergies or autoimmune problems later on. This “hygiene hypothesis” causes confusion sometimes. The hypothesis does not mean that the immune system needs to be exposed to germs all the time to remain strong.
"We spend a lifetime developing immunity to germs in our environment. In comparison to life in our communities and around other people, the time we've spent in lockdown (or social-distancing from others) is short. Our bodies remember the germs and viruses we have been exposed to before lockdown and will continue to remember after it ends."
What are the ingredients in the AstraZeneca vaccine?
The AstraZeneca vaccine is made from an adenovirus that has been changed in the lab so it can't cause harm. It has been adjusted to work as a delivery system for the vaccine. The shot gives the body instructions to create the spike protein from COVID-19 in its cells. That way, when a person is exposed to COVID-19, its immune system will recognize the part of the virus that has those spike proteins and will know how to how to fight it.
"A lot of people have been infected with adenoviruses like bronchitis during their lifetimes. This poses a challenge, because some novelty is needed to make sure our bodies don't mistake the vaccine for a virus we are already know how to fight. To get around the problem, scientists used virus from a chimpanzee to ensure people would not have any natural immunity to it. This is the same type of vaccine that flu and the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome vaccines have used for years. It is a proven, safe and relatively old approach."
What do we know so far about COVID-19 vaccines and their impact on menstruation?
After getting the COVID-19 vaccines some women report temporary changes in their menstrual cycle, including the duration, volume and timing, as well as discomfort.
The U.S. CDC does not note menstrual changes as a side effect of the vaccines. Menstrual changes were also not tracked in clinical trials. Therefore, there is no scientifically confirmed evidence that shows the vaccine causes irregularities in menstrual cycles.
"When a vaccine activates our immune system, it could temporarily affect immune cells that interact with the uterus, causing some irregularity. This may be because the lining of the uterus called the 'endometrium' is technically part of the immune system. However, more studies are needed to determine if this is the case. Menstrual irregularities could be due to many factors. Some studies indicate that COVID-19 itself could cause irregular menstrual cycles in some people."
Here's a look at what's on the horizon
Meedan scientists are bringing you science forecasting based on their insights and access to public health communities. Later this month and going into March, keep an eye out for these upcoming pieces of news on the pandemic:
All eyes on India: Roughly one-third of all global infections and deaths attributed to COVID-19 have occurred in the last 3 months alone. India's current COVID-19 outbreak has seen over 350,000 new infections in a single day. Faced with an overflowing health system and an immediate need for oxygen and remdesivir, several countries provided rapid assistance to answer the nation's plea for help.
We expect more countries with less pressing outbreaks to begin donating some of their supplies (masks and other personal protective equipment, rapid tests, ventilators, medications, and oxygen) alongside support from international organizations. Due to current vaccine shortages, it is unlikely the country will see an influx of those donations.
Intellectual property debate: There’s growing global pressure on pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies to share the formulas to their COVID-19 vaccines. More than 100 countries support a temporary waiver to some of the World Trade Organization's rules about this form of intellectual property. If the rules are waived, more nations would have access to vaccine production…at least theoretically. Pharmaceutical companies and some political leaders note that intellectual property is not the major barrier to increases in manufacturing. They say it’s a lack of specific skills and other necessary components that are critical to vaccine production.
Our team expects the global pressure to continue as more world leaders and international organizations push for more access. This could lead to the release of one or more vaccine formulas, though this is highly unlikely in the short-term. As of now, no COVID-19 vaccine creators have shared their technology through the World Health Organization's COVID-19 Technology Access Pool. Low-income countries have received just 0.3% of the 900 million doses of vaccine that have been administered globally.
Two pandemics: Dozens of nations are grappling with increasing infection rates and limited vaccine availability, while many high-income nations are dropping their mask-wearing and social distancing restrictions. The head of the European Commission recently noted American tourists who have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 will be able to visit countries in the European Union (EU) over the summer. The EU is also working to create "digital green certificates" that acknowledge when a citizen has either been fully vaccinated, recently tested negative, or recently recovered from the disease. Cruise lines are working to restart operations, theme parks have opened in several nations, and concerts and festivals are starting to be scheduled for later this year in these high-income countries. Many critics note that as low- and middle-income nations are feeling the dire consequences of the virus' spread, other nations are returning to their normal routines without much focus on those now in need. We expect to see expanded tension between nations with widespread access to vaccines and those now embroiled in viral outbreaks without them.
And finally, our word of the week
Keeping you up to speed on the ever-evolving glossary of COVID-19 terms and phrases. This week's term is "repurposed vaccine"
Here's what it means:
"Repurposed vaccines use existing vaccines combined with new components to create an immune response that can protect against infection from a different disease. For example, researchers at the University of Sydney and Centenary Institute are trying to repurpose an existing tuberculosis (TB) vaccine, called Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG), for a COVID-19 vaccine."